Senedd Polling Over the Last 12 Months

As voters head to the polls today for the Senedd election, Lewis Davies has taken look at how the parties have polled over the past 12 months.

Rally Around the Flag

Back in April 2020,  the Conservatives were flying in the Welsh Political Barometer Poll. The Conservatives were polling at an all time high on the constituency vote with 38% and achieving a best-ever showing on the regional vote with  37%. These polling figures projected that the Conservatives would win 26 seats, an outcome which would be the first time that a Senedd election produced any party other than Labour winning the largest number of seats.

It was noted at the time that the polling suggested there was ‘rally around the flag’ effect taking place at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite health being devolved and a Labour government leading the battle against the virus in Wales, it appeared to be the Conservatives who were getting the most political credit with the Welsh public. This reinforces the strong influence that UK level politics has on Welsh political preferences.

The Rise of the Abolitionists

By the time of the November Welsh Political Barometer Poll of 2020, the Conservatives had slipped back to second place with Labour projected to pick up 28 seats. The story of this poll however was the rise of Abolish the Welsh Assembly, who register their highest figure on the regional vote. The polling figure projected that the party would pick up 4 seats on the regional lists.

The support for Abolish at the time was seen as reaction from those who resented the distinct approach to the handling of the coronavirus pandemic taken by the Welsh Government. The polling was undertaken during the first week of the Welsh Government’s firebreak lockdown, which saw Wales go into a 17-day lockdown. The polls since then have suggested that Abolish the Welsh Assembly are on course to pick up between 2 and 4 seats at this years election.

Polling in 2021

The polls we have seen since that start of 2021 have suggest that Labour will continue to be largest party in the Senedd with seat projections ranging between 22 and 26 seats. The Conservatives have remained in second place with seat projections ranging between 14 and 19, with the party looking to pick up the Labour seats of the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham and Cardiff North. Plaid Cymru, who have polled closely behind the Conservatives in past few months have been projected to pick up between 14 and 17 seats. The Liberal Democrats on the other hand have consistently polled just high enough to retain their single constituency seat of Brecon and Radnorshire.