The Deryn Seat Projector

Deryn, Wales’ leading public affairs agency, has today launched a new digital tool to inform Welsh voters how opinion polls can be used to predict which seats may change hands at the General Election.

The online gizmo uses the 2017 General Election result as a baseline, and then applies the Uniform National Swing model to show the difference between the result and the opinion polls.

Entering the latest Welsh Political Barometer Survey results provided by YouGov for ITV Wales projects that 5 seats would change hands, with Labour losing Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham to the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats picking up Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru.

Cathy Owens, Director of Deryn, said:

“We are known for innovating in political data visualisation, and this tool takes it one step further. You can use polling results to immediately project election outcomes and can look at how a small change in the polls at a national level could affect the seat by seat results.

But you can also play fantasy politics, so you can enter the polling results your party want or need to reach in order to project a change in certain seats.

It’s an early Christmas present to political geeks, and we’ve already started working on the Assembly version. We have thoroughly enjoyed explaining the d’Hondt Method of seat allocation to our friends at digital agency Blue Stag.

The geeks will rejoice, but it will also be an accessible tool to explain how our multi-party democracy works and will be an ideal explainer for the new young voters who will be part of the next Assembly election in 2021.”

Dan Sargeant, Creative Director of Blue Stag said:

“We were pretty excited when we were asked by Deryn to help turn their data on the General Election into a useful and fun tool. We’re hoping that the tool will help people better understand Welsh politics as well as predict the outcome of the election.”

The Deryn Seat Projector is at seatprojector.deryn.co.uk